With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton is drawing increasing attention as new polling shows a closely contested contest.
A new Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey gives Talarico 49% support among likely Texas voters, compared with 44% for Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown receives 3%, while another 3% remain undecided. The five-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The poll was conducted September 19–22 among 1,007 likely voters, making it one of the latest snapshots of the Texas Senate contest. It also shows that the race continues to have a relatively small pool of undecided voters, potentially putting greater importance on turnout and persuasion as Election Day approaches.
However, the latest numbers should be viewed alongside other recent surveys rather than as a prediction of the election result. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll conducted September 12–14 found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, while a Marist poll conducted September 17–20 showed Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44%.
New Texas Poll Shows Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 44%
The latest TPOR survey provides a five-point margin between the two major-party candidates.
Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin and the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, received 49% support. Paxton, Texas’ Republican attorney general and Republican Senate nominee, received 44%. Brown, the Libertarian candidate, received 3%, while another 3% of respondents were undecided.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. That means the five-point difference should not be interpreted as a precise measurement of the eventual vote margin. Polls measure voter preferences at the time respondents were surveyed, and results can change as campaigns develop and voters make final decisions.
The TPOR survey also represents a slight change from the organization’s August polling. Talarico’s lead narrowed from six points to five points, while the share of undecided voters fell from 7% to 3%. Support for Libertarian candidate Ted Brown increased from 1% to 3%.
The movement is notable because the overall gap remains relatively small despite a reduction in the number of undecided voters.
Other recent polling similarly shows a competitive contest. The Emerson College/Nexstar survey found Talarico ahead 47% to 46%, while the Texas Politics Project’s poll tracker lists several September surveys showing Talarico ahead by margins ranging from one to six percentage points.
A RealClearPolitics compilation of recent surveys showed an average of 47.6% for Talarico and 44.6% for Paxton across polls conducted September 8–22, a three-point difference.
Taken together, the recent polling illustrates why individual survey results can differ. Different pollsters use different samples, methodologies, field dates and weighting systems, while the race itself continues to evolve.
Independent Voters Are a Major Factor in the Latest Numbers
One of the most significant findings in the TPOR survey concerns independent voters.
Among independents surveyed, Talarico received 58% support compared with 26% for Paxton, a 32-point difference. Five percent of independents were undecided.
Independent voters can be difficult to categorize because they are not formally aligned with either major political party. Their preferences can also vary considerably from election to election and from state to state.
The TPOR results show Talarico leading among several demographic groups, including Black voters, Latino voters, voters younger than 55 and college-educated voters. Paxton leads among white voters and voters age 55 and older in this particular survey.
The demographic numbers should be treated carefully because subgroup samples are smaller than the overall survey sample. As a result, subgroup estimates generally carry greater uncertainty than the headline statewide figures.
The Emerson College poll also identified a significant divide among Latino voters. According to that survey, Latino voters supported Talarico 54% to 39% over Paxton. Emerson’s poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters and carried a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points for the overall sample.
At the same time, the broader polling picture does not show one uniform result. The Texas Politics Project tracker lists recent surveys ranging from a one-point Talarico advantage to a six-point advantage, demonstrating that the race remains sensitive to poll methodology and timing.
For Texas voters, the most important takeaway from these numbers is that different surveys are measuring slightly different snapshots. No single poll can establish what the final statewide vote will look like.
Talarico and Paxton Take Different Approaches to the Final Weeks
The latest polling comes as both campaigns increase their activity ahead of the November election.
Talarico has recently focused on debates and direct comparisons with Paxton. On September 24, Talarico challenged Paxton to participate in a televised debate moderated by Fox News’ Bret Baier. The proposal came during an appearance at The Texas Tribune Festival.
Talarico had previously announced that he had accepted invitations for three televised debates organized by Texas media organizations. Paxton’s campaign said in July that it expected to engage with potential debate hosts, although the campaigns have continued to differ over the details and timing of potential debates.
Debates can give voters an opportunity to compare candidates directly on issues, records and policy proposals. Whether additional debates are ultimately scheduled will depend on negotiations between the campaigns and media organizations.
Paxton, meanwhile, has emphasized issues including taxes, housing, health care and child care during recent campaign appearances. At a September 21 rally in Cypress, he highlighted his record as Texas attorney general and presented his economic agenda to supporters.
Paxton’s campaign has also continued to focus criticism on Talarico’s positions on issues including environmental policy and transgender rights. Talarico’s campaign has emphasized its own policy priorities while seeking to frame the Senate race as a choice between different approaches to national and state politics.
The campaigns’ contrasting messages reflect the broader structure of the race: two candidates with different political records competing for voters in a state where recent polling indicates a much closer contest than the historical partisan makeup of Texas might suggest.
The Senate seat is currently held by Republican John Cornyn, making the race one of the closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm cycle. The Texas Senate campaign has consequently attracted national attention, with both parties monitoring the contest closely.
What the Latest Polling Means as Election Day Approaches
The newest numbers provide a snapshot of the race, but they do not determine the eventual outcome.
The TPOR poll puts Talarico five points ahead, while Emerson found a one-point difference and Marist reported a six-point Talarico lead. The Texas Politics Project’s compilation similarly shows a series of recent polls with relatively narrow margins.
The RealClearPolitics average based on surveys conducted September 8–22 stood at 47.6% for Talarico and 44.6% for Paxton, with other candidates or undecided voters accounting for the remaining support.
These differences highlight why polling averages can provide additional context. A single poll may reflect an unusual movement or methodological difference, while an average incorporates several surveys conducted over a similar period.
The remaining weeks of the campaign could also bring changes in voter preferences. Candidates will continue spending money on advertising, organizing supporters, attending events and communicating their positions on issues important to Texas voters.
According to the September Emerson poll, the economy was the top issue among Texas voters, with 36% identifying it as the most important issue facing the state. Immigration followed at 14%, education at 12%, health care at 11% and threats to democracy at 11%.
That issue ranking provides additional context for the campaign because voters’ priorities can influence which messages receive the most attention during the closing weeks.
Turnout will also matter. Midterm elections generally involve a different electorate from presidential elections, and polling organizations attempt to account for this by identifying likely voters. Even so, determining exactly who will cast a ballot remains difficult before Election Day.
For now, the latest Texas Senate polling shows a race that remains closely contested. Talarico’s five-point advantage in the TPOR survey is one of the more substantial recent leads, but it sits alongside other polls showing a much narrower gap.
The most recent evidence therefore points to continued competition rather than a settled contest. With early voting approaching and the November 3 election still ahead, both campaigns have time to make their cases to Texas voters.
The next series of polls will provide additional information about whether the current margins are holding, narrowing or changing as the campaign enters its final phase.
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